One of the questions I’m asked most often—especially in times of economic uncertainty—is:
“Rick, do you have any recession-resistant businesses for sale?”

My answer?
“Yes, I do. But the real question is—are you ready for it?”

In addition to my full-time work as a professional business intermediary, I also operate a FedEx Pickup & Delivery (P&D) route in the San Francisco Bay Area. I’ve been in the business for five years now.

By this point, nearly everyone who knows me has asked, “What’s it like being a FedEx contractor?” And my answer is always the same:
“Stay focused on compliance, respect the business, and you’ll be in a happy place.”

Drawing on my experience in both entrepreneurship and business brokerage, I can confidently say this is the most recession-resistant business I’ve ever owned. In fact, it’s the only business where I don’t lose sleep over revenue fluctuations. As long as the operation is well-managed—and yes, that can be a challenge—profit margins typically range between 10% and 30%, depending on your level of involvement and leadership.

Predictable Revenue, Strong Margins

FedEx provides contractors with a 12-month revenue forecast based on big data, and in my experience, it has been more than 90% accurate. Based on my own analysis, I’ve found that a FedEx P&D operation generating $1.2 million to $1.5 million annually is ideal for a single-operator entity. At this scale, the business strikes the right balance between compliance, manageability, and profitability.

Even when factoring in debt service—such as an SBA loan—this size of operation can produce strong cash flow. Typical lenders often prefer a debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) of 1.25x or more to ensure borrowers can comfortably repay their debt. 

Here’s a simplified sample breakdown for a business generating $1.35 million in annual revenue:

• Revenue: $1,350,000
• Labor & Costs: $742,500 (55%)
• Truck Fuel: $135,000 (10%)
• Truck Maintenance & Repairs: $135,000 (10%)
• Miscellaneous Expenses: $67,500 (5%)
• Net Profit: $270,000 (20%)

Because over 70% of costs scale with revenue, the business remains financially stable even in modest downturns—an important advantage in today’s unpredictable economy.

Hands-On Management = Healthy Margins

This is not a “set-it-and-forget-it” type of business. If you overspend on management while staying too far removed from daily operations, your profit margins will shrink. On the other hand, if you under-manage and neglect compliance, you risk facing major issues—especially around driver safety and accident management.

Accidents are the wildcards in this business. For a business of this size, 0–2 accidents per year is manageable. But if you hit three or more, it can significantly reduce profitability—or worse, lead to contract termination.

Respect the Business—or Risk Losing It

Yes, contractors can lose their FedEx contracts. I’ve seen it happen—most often when someone treats the business like an absentee or turn-key investment, or when they take on more territory than they can realistically manage.

FedEx doesn’t just hand out contracts and look the other way. They expect top-tier service, and if you fall short, they will step in almost immediately. Contractors who don’t dedicate time to the business—or who fail to respect its operational demands—often end up miserable and looking to sell. Some break even or make a modest profit. Others aren’t as fortunate and may lose money—or their contract altogether.

Think Like FedEx

One of the most important lessons I’ve learned is to think like FedEx. I often ask myself:
“If I were FedEx, what would I expect from a contractor to ensure a great customer experience?”

That mindset is even more important now, as FedEx continues rolling out its “One FedEx” strategy—a consolidation effort unifying its various operating companies under a single brand. This transition means increased volume within existing territories, which is good news for contractors who can keep up—but adds pressure for those who can’t.

I’ve seen this shift in real time, and it’s clear: FedEx is increasingly prioritizing contractors who exhibit strong leadership and operational efficiency, while phasing out those unable to keep pace with rising demands. That could mean territory reductions—or complete contract loss.

So, Why Is My FedEx Business Recession-Resistant?

It comes down to a few key points:

• Revenue is predictable
• Expenses are scalable
• Profitability is controllable—if you lead with discipline
• FedEx needs reliable contractors to serve its customer base

Let me be clear: this business isn’t for everyone. But if you’re willing to put in the work, stay hands-on, and operate within the model, a FedEx P&D route can provide stable, recession-resistant income—regardless of economic conditions. Without the right mindset, though, you may be better off placing your investment in a fixed-income ETF. My humble two cents.